Malappuram: The Nilambur by-election has turned into a gripping political face-off between two evenly matched fronts, with political Kerala anxiously waiting to see in whose favour the final ‘goal’ will be scored. The United Democratic Front (UDF) took the early lead by finalising its candidate swiftly, but the Left Democratic Front (LDF) soon levelled the score by fielding a strong opponent. Soon after, P V Anvar entered the fray, further complicating the equation.

The contest, which began slowly, has evolved into a fierce UDF-LDF showdown, with a remarkable voter turnout adding further uncertainty to the outcome. With 75.27% polling recorded — slightly higher than the 75.23% seen in the 2021 Assembly election — the result is too close to call. It’s now akin to a penalty shootout, where the final shot is yet to be taken.

Both major alliances are holding their breath as they await the outcome of the 75.27% votes cast. The high turnout has intensified the anxiety in both camps. Who ultimately benefits from the increased polling is the big question now.

The Anvar factor

Both fronts remain confident, but are wary of undercurrents that could sway the result. Independent candidate P V Anvar's performance could be decisive. Initially claiming he would garner 75,000 votes, he later revised that figure to 25,000. Even securing 10,000 votes would be a personal success. The impact of his votes depends on whose support base he has dented. Moreover, many of the issues he raised directly concern the ecologically sensitive high-range regions — something that may work in his favour.

UDF hopes high

The UDF is aiming for a winning margin of at least 15,000 votes, banking on anti-incumbency sentiments and support from minority communities. They are particularly optimistic about votes from Chungkathara, Edakkara and Mootthedam panchayats, where they had secured majorities even in 2021 when Anvar won the seat. They believe this support has grown.

However, while Jamaat-e-Islami has announced support for the UDF, it remains to be seen how much of their vote actually transferred. There is also concern that this alliance may have alienated some swing voters. The UDF is confident that internal disagreements within the party will not remarkably impact the result. No matter what, they expect to cross the 10,000-vote margin.

Swaraj’s persona boosts LDF

The LDF, on the other hand, is expecting a margin of not less than 10,000 votes, buoyed by the dynamic presence of candidate M Swaraj. They also feel the need to prove that Anvar’s entry has not damaged their base. Their calculation is that Anvar may siphon off a notable portion of UDF votes. However, there is also concern that he could attract some anti-Left votes as well.

The Left believes their full-fledged campaign, involving the Chief Minister, ministers and MLAs, will bear fruit. That said, a controversy stirred up in the final stretch by party secretary M V Govindan remains a point of worry.

Swaraj’s candidacy might even attract votes from a small section of former BJP supporters, given his strong anti-Sangh Parivar stance. The LDF fears attempts might be made to derail his win. If that happens, NDA candidate Adv Mohan George could see a reduced vote count compared to the 8,500 votes the BJP polled last time. However, George’s strong outreach in Christian areas may help offset the loss. He has conducted notable groundwork in those communities and could retain his 2021 vote share — or even surpass it. NDA workers are hopeful of crossing the 10,000 mark.

With so many variables in play, the final result is truly up in the air.